Last month, behind-the-scenes pressure, not faulty data, led to the quiet removal of inconvenient research findings that contradict the Australia government's narrative.
Australia has long considered itself a global leader in tobacco control. With policies like plain packaging, aggressive taxation, and hard-hitting public education campaigns, the country earned a reputation for pushing smoking rates to historic lows. But in recent years, troubling developments suggest that this reputation may be masking a growing public health crisis—and a government increasingly reluctant to face the facts.
On July 1, 2025, respected research firm Roy Morgan released a startling report (Finding No. 9936). Its headline: cigarette smoking in Australia is rising—driven primarily by 18- to 24-year-olds—since the 2024 ban on retail vape sales. According to the company’s Single Source survey, cigarette use among young adults jumped from 8.2% in September 2024 to 11.1% in May 2025. That equates to roughly 80,000 new smokers in a demographic that had previously been trending away from cigarettes.
Overall adult smoking also ticked up—from 7.9% to 8.3%—marking the first national increase in over a decade. These findings directly contradicted the federal government’s narrative: that strict vaping regulations would reduce nicotine use overall. But instead of prompting urgent public debate, the report disappeared.
The report they clearly didn’t want you to see
Within 48 hours of publication, the Roy Morgan release was nowhere to be found. The webpage returned a “404” error. Posts on X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook promoting the data were deleted. Even archived versions on the Wayback Machine vanished—something that raised eyebrows among transparency advocates. No official retraction or clarification was offered by Roy Morgan or the Department of Health. Just silence.
Reddit users and vaping forums quickly began sharing screenshots and speculating about the abrupt wipeout. Many saw it not as a technical issue but a clear case of information suppression. Following an email alerting us on the matter by Australian tobacco harm reduction (THR) advocacy group ALIVE, Vaping Post sent an email to Roy Morgan, asking for an explanation, but of course, none was ever recieved.
Why does this matter? Roy Morgan’s research has long been used by the Department of Health in policy briefings and public campaigns. Its credibility has been central to shaping Australia’s stance on tobacco and nicotine regulation. If its data is now being quietly censored—especially findings that run counter to government messaging—it raises serious concerns about transparency and evidence-based policymaking.
An amended narrative – one which suits the Health Department
Days later, a revised version of the report quietly re-emerged—but key changes were made. The updated release downplayed the rise in cigarette smoking, widened the time frame, and emphasized a vague “changing nicotine landscape.” It also added context about illicit tobacco use, making the spike in legal cigarette sales seem less alarming. The new version no longer described the findings as a reversal of progress—it simply stated that “further monitoring” would be needed. An accompanying video was also edited. The original six-minute version was trimmed by more than 90 seconds, with the section discussing increased smoking among young adults removed entirely. Again, no disclosure or rationale for these edits was provided.
These changes seemed oddly aligned with earlier government talking points. Even before the original report vanished, a Health Department spokesperson had dismissed its conclusions as premature, claiming the timeframe was “too narrow.” The reissued version echoed this language, suggesting that the spike may not be statistically significant—a shift that critics argue feels more political than scientific.
Conflicting explanations and missing accountability
Some academics have floated the theory that errors in analysis led to the takedown. But Roy Morgan has not confirmed this. Instead, it has insisted that its intention was to provide “broader context,” not correct mistakes. This inconsistency raises further questions: Was the change in narrative due to internal reassessment—or external pressure?
Public health advocates and harm reduction groups, including ALIVE (Australian Legalise Vaping Enterprise), have demanded answers. They’ve called on both Roy Morgan and Health Minister Mark Butler to clarify whether the report’s removal was requested or influenced by government officials. So far, no explanation has been given. Media outlets that initially reported the findings have also remained silent on the deletion and subsequent revisions.
Meanwhile, ALIVE reported that Professor Becky Freeman from the University of Sydney, acknowledged that a private email exchange among tobacco control insiders played a role in Roy Morgan’s decision to withdraw a report that presented uncomfortable findings. Importantly, she did not question the accuracy of the data. In fact, she confirmed there was no issue with the data itself—only that its interpretation didn’t align with the prevailing narrative. Rather than encouraging open discussion or a transparent, peer-reviewed correction, the response was a discreet, behind-the-scenes complaint that resulted in the report being removed. This isn’t an example of scientific integrity—it’s censorship presented as quality assurance.
Global data support the original report
This of course, is not just a domestic issue. Similar policy outcomes have been observed internationally. In the U.S., local flavour bans led to increases in youth cigarette purchases. New Zealand researchers have warned that restricting vape access among Māori youth could cause a return to smoking. Early modeling in Australia had already predicted that a retail vape ban might backfire among younger users—now it appears those warnings are being realized.
If Roy Morgan’s original figures were accurate, Australia is not curbing nicotine use. It’s reshaping it—potentially pushing young people from regulated vape products toward deadly combustible cigarettes. That’s not just a policy failure; it’s a public health emergency.
Also in Australia, a study highlights the effectivity of vapes for smoking cessation
Adding to the complexity, new clinical data supports the idea that vaping can be an effective tool for helping some smokers—especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds—quit for good.
A recent randomized controlled trial conducted by the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre (NDARC) at UNSW Sydney found that nicotine-containing vapes were significantly more effective than gum or lozenges at helping low-income Australians quit smoking. Published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, the study followed over 1,000 daily smokers receiving government financial assistance. Participants who used nicotine vapes had a quit rate nearly three times higher than those using traditional nicotine replacement therapy—28.4% versus 9.6% at six months.
This success was credited to several factors: flexibility in choosing flavours, the ability to mimic the ritual of smoking, and ongoing support through text message coaching. Pod-style vapes, which are common in Australia, were used—reinforcing that it’s possible to implement effective harm reduction with regulated products.
The study did raise concerns about potential long-term nicotine dependence. Experts stressed that vaping should be viewed as a transitional aid—not a permanent solution. However, THR experts have long highlighted that in the context of reducing harm, switching to a non-combustible nicotine product is a victory for public health, as nicotine does not cause cancer, or any of the other diseases that cigarettes do.
Ultimately the study reinforces what harm reduction advocates have been saying for years: vaping can play a crucial role in reducing tobacco-related harm, particularly in populations that have been hardest to reach with traditional quit methods.
What Roy Morgan wasn’t allowed to say
The deliberate omission—or at least the unexplained erasure—of Roy Morgan’s original report is not a trivial matter. It reflects a broader discomfort within Australian health authorities around inconvenient truths. Rather than grappling with the unintended consequences of the retail vape ban, the response appears to have been: delete, revise, reframe.
But if policies are failing, the worst response is to obscure the evidence. Young Australians now turning to cigarettes are paying the price for these choices. They deserve honest public health leadership, not spin. Roy Morgan should provide a transparent account of what led to the removal and rewriting of its July 1 findings. Moreover, the Department of Health must clarify whether it played a role. And the media must do its job: asking questions, investigating changes, and holding officials accountable.
Australia still has an opportunity to course correct—but only if it confronts the data, even when it’s uncomfortable. True leadership means being willing to acknowledge when things aren’t working—and to change course before more lives are lost.